When I (and others) book a job three months in advance, the contractor can hire more workers knowing when checks will be coming in. My visibility creates the contractors visibility. The predictability of revenue creates the opportunity for economic expansion and job creation.
The Federal Reserve is operating monetary policy using a simple formula:
Lower interest rates across all maturities ALWAYS increases economic growth.
My personal example proves this formula to be flawed. I think the formula is more complicated:
Lowering interest rates across all maturities has both positive and negative consequences. As interest rates approach zero, (with the prospect that they will remain so for years to come) the negative consequences outweigh any benefits.
The idea that lower interest rates are hurting savers is an old one. The question is, “How significant are the negative consequences of low interest rates?” The multi-decade efforts in Japan to reflate an economy with low interest rates is a shining example of policy that has not worked.
Read this article, you will have, in nutshell, exactly our economic situation. Read at least some of the comments. If you filter out the hyperbole of a few, the comments form a kind of crystal ball, with some sobering predictions.
