uncertain times – Dispatches From The Front

Uncertainty is not a passing storm—it’s the new climate. To thrive, leaders must abandon the illusion of perfect information and instead adopt a mindset of adaptability, a skillset of structured judgment, and toolsets that support iterative decision-making.

Core Insights & Impact

1. Embrace Probabilistic Thinking

Mindset: Replace “What will happen?” with “What could happen, and how likely is each scenario?”

Skillset: Estimate outcomes based on likelihoods, not certainties—consider a range of scenarios and update beliefs as new data emerges.

Toolset: Use frameworks like decision trees or Bayesian updating.

Impact: Reduces overconfidence and helps teams make informed bets rather than risky leaps.

Well, I didn’t expect this to happen — and I’m guessing you didn’t either. If you’re a small-business owner, you need a plan more than ever. These are the strategies I’m relying on as a small-business owner to help me lead through this extremely uncertain time.

1. Time

You need to give yourself a little time to process the impact this coronavirus will have and the challenges and opportunities that it has created for you, your business, your family and others. Most of us will be a little dazed for a while. Unfortunately, just because some of us have more time on our hands doesn’t mean we’ll spend it productively. Right now, I’m mostly focusing on taking a deep breath.

Tag: uncertain times

Deciding in the Dark: How Great Leaders Make Smart Choices in Uncertain Times | Getentrepreneurial.com

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