Trends

Real gross domestic product fell an annualized 1 percent in the second quarter of 2009. While this was the fourth consecutive quarter of declining output, the decline was significantly less than the previous quarter’s 6.4 percent drop, and it may be one of a handful of signs that the worst of the recession may be past. Real consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of real GDP, was down 1.2 percent annually, and real exports were off 7 percent. Other declines were more marked: real gross private fixed investment declined an annualized 20.5 percent, and real imports fell 15.1 percent. Measures of manufacturing output were mixed, with industrial production falling and the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager’s index rising. Proprietors’ income fell 5.4 percent on an annualized basis during the quarter, and by 8 percent year to year.
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